Is Moose Hunting More Popular than Obamacare in NH?

On Nov. 18, 2013,  former governor and presidential candidate Mike Huckabee made a bold claim on his nationwide radio program. He said, "You've got more people wanting to go moose hunting in New Hampshire than want Obamacare."

Huckabee noted that 281 Granite Staters were issued permits to hunt moose while only 269 people had enrolled in Obamacare. Case closed. Moose hunting is more popular.

Hold on a minute. It's a good thing that Huckabee isn't a member of the scientific community. His reasoning might be questioned.

Politifact is a service run by the Tampa Bay Times which is designed to measure on its famous Truth-O-Meter the truthfulness of statements.  Politifact undertook a close analysis of Huckabee's claim that moose hunting is more popular than Obamacare.

First, Politifact pointed out that the 281 moose hunting permits issued isn't a true measure of the number of people who want to go moose hunting. More than 13,000 people applied for permits; the 281 lucky individuals who received them were selected by lottery. The figure 13,000 more accurately reflects the popularity of moose hunting.

Ye gads, now Obamacare is really doing badly. The score is 13,000 for moose hunting, but only 269 for Obamacare.

But then, Politifact notes that the 269 enrollees isn't a good measure of Obamacare's popularity either. Maybe, many more Granite Staters wanted Obamacare, but were prevented from enrolling by problems with the website. Some 7,817 people completed applications for Obamacare, but weren't enrolled. It looks as if these 7,817 wanted Obamacare. Now, the score is moose hunting 13,000 and Obamacare 7,817.

And there's more to come. The figure 269 Obamacare enrollees came from numbers released on Nov. 2. Huckabee made his claim on Nov. 18. Who knows how many more New Hampshirites were enrolled or completed applications in the ensuing 16 days? So, the Obamacare figure of 7,817 is too low.

And, Politifact notes, in general, people are procrastinators. Very few students write their term papers two weeks before the deadline. Many more rush to complete them in the last day or two before the paper is due. So it is, that many Granite Staters will wait until the deadline to express an interest in Obamacare. Present numbers are a poor indicator.

Yikes, now things are really getting complicated. That's the nature of life. There are many more questions than answers. We may never know whether moose hunting is more popular than Obamacare.

But, at the very least, you now have a topic to argue about with relatives over the Thanksgiving dinner.

If you would like other topics for discussion (or indeed argument), may I suggest my new book Outtastatahs: Newcomers' Adventures in New Hampshire. Outtastatahs (as in out-of-staters) which can be purchased for $13.99 at River Run Books in Portsmouth, The Water Street Bookstore in Exeter, Gibson's Bookstore in Concord or on-line at amazon.com or barnesandnoble.com.