Leading Indicators Point to Strong Spring Market

Real estate is analyzed by looking at two distinct types of indictors, leading and lagging. Lagging indicators are things such as closed sales; a leading indicator is homes placed under agreement. Homes placed under agreement have a Purchase and Sale signed but has yet to reach the closing table.

As the fall market starts to wind down my focus is on spring 2013, so I thought it prudent to analyze a leading indicator and found some very encouraging news.  According to the Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR), pending home sales rose 36 percent compared to the same time last year. This is the second biggest year-over-year increase in the history of this statistical category.

With such strong state wide numbers I took a closer look at what is happening right here in Concord.

For the month of October, Concord actually saw a decrease in homes placed under agreement. Concord is one of the few markets that showed seasonal strength, but low under agreement volume in the fall market. It is clear to me that the low under agreement volume was based on low inventory levels, and pent-up buyer demand. Leading one to believe that spring will be a fantastic time to put your home on the market

This statistical category shows some very positive forward trends as our housing market fully recovers from a significant period of decline. I expect to see a very short winter for the housing market with properties coming on early to take advantage of pent-up buyer demand.  With the cost of capital at historic lows, this will be one of the best times in recent history to both buy, based on upward trends, and sell, based on pent up demand.

I want to wish everyone a happy holidays, and prosperous New Year.